Now here's what I'm good at
In the future, they will analyze the strategies of successful Ebay bidders like they do chess grandmasters or international bridge players (or Phil Ivey, who cheats). Unless you are actually bidding, you don't realize the strategy that goes into it, and when you look at the recap, it just sits there flat on the page unless you understand the drama behind the numbers.
Perhaps they'll make a reality show someday focusing on the top Ebay bidders and stream it on Netflix. In the meantime, here is one of the more interesting threeways that unfolded near the end of an auction today.
First, some preliminaries. This is Fern Lodge in Rocky Mountain National Park. (Everyone calls it "Fern Lake Lodge" now, but I tend to respect and adhere to the name a structure or business was initially assigned by its builder/owner, rather than the default lazy historians assign to it after it is long gone. Yes, ultimately, Fern Lodge was called Fern Lake Lodge (by someone, who told their friends, who told their friends) later in its life, but during its shining moments, during the yearly winter outings of the Colorado Mountain Club, for example, beginning in 1916, it was always Fern Lodge.) Note that it has two chimneys, one on the side and one at the back (smoke appears to be rising from the chimney at the back - This smoke? [tentative smoke] could be a trick of the light or the trick the trees are playing on your eyes, but in any event, Fern Lodge had two chimneys.
That (a picture of the exterior of Fern Lodge) was not the item up for sale on Ebay today. This was:
The back of the postcard (with its AZO four-square stamp box) tells you the postcard was printed sometime after 1925. (The paper remnants tells you this postcard spend part of its life in a scrapbook.) That is helpful, but not as helpful as the description provided by the seller, which indicates a 1927 calendar is hanging on the wall. In general, 1927 calendars are not printed and available for sale prior to late 1926. So it would seem this photograph was taken in 1927 or later (it is certainly possible Fern Lodge left old calendars hanging on the wall, so the photo conceivably could have been taken any time prior to its demolition in 1976, for example, 1975, although if this were the case, the manufacturer would have had a difficult time locating any remaining (reliable) photographic paper with a AZO four-square stamp box on the back.
So let's just go with a circa 1927 real-photo postcard of the interior of Fern Lodge, manufacturer unknown. (To anyone who is skeptical this is actually Fern Lodge, or Fern Lodge in Rocky Mountain National Park, since we are simply relying on some anonymous person's handwritten description (rather than, say, a printed title provided by the manufacturer), there is no question this is the same Fern Lodge in Rocky Mountain National Park.) What is something like that worth? (Oh, while we're at it, the writing on the front is intriguing, but could have been added at any time. The floor is actually a puncheon floor, but maybe "pile floor" was vernacular at the time, like cross-cut wood floor or end-grain wood floor is now - These are just discs of wood embedded end-on.)
I'm going to show you the summary of what it sold for (which is not always the same as what it is actually worth) as far as how bids came in, which will be like posting ancient Sanskrit to those unfamiliar with Ebay, so I'm going to break it down into component parts and give a short play-by-play. The bottom line, if you've already lost interest, is that it was worth $88 to one individual, $87 to another individual, and $86.99 to a third individual. But how this all unfolded over the course of a 7-day listing was fascinating.
This is the bid summary, which is arranged upside-down chronologically, so we're not going to spent much time on it. The important part is, the item was listed last Sunday morning with an opening bid of $9.99, and the first bidder, e***m (Ebay now masks bidder identities, or attempts to, but in a specialized field, the feedback rating (the number in parenthesis following the masked I.D.) makes the bidder obvious, so, for ease of storytelling, let's just refer to e***m as "Bobbie") found it later that afternoon, and put in a maximum bid of $34.56. (Ebay allows you to put in any maximum you want, but only "unmasks" it when another bidder gets close to that maximum, or goes over it - What is displayed on the screen is $9.99 (because you are the first bidder, you have bid the minimum required, and no one has bid against you, yet), and only the bidder (and Ebay) knows what their maximum bid is.)
Now I'm going to pull out certain portions of this summary, because there was some minor inconsequential bidding action over the course of the week prior to today, which was mostly just interested parties showing they had found the item (sometimes the hardest part of Ebay is actually discovering the listing - Fantastic items routinely go unsold, or sell for much less than what they could sell for, because of bad descriptions) - and were marking their territory. (Ebay gives you two options once you've found an auction - Either bid on it or put it in your "watch list" - For an item like this, which anyone with any brains knew wasn't going to sell for $9.99, it really doesn't matter what legitimate bidders do once they find it - They can bid on it (and thus reveal that they have found it) or put in in their watch list, and thus keep it a secret until near the end of the auction (which most smart bidders do, but sometimes you can be so smart you're stupid, and forget to check back on something in your watch list prior to the end of the auction, and thus miss out), but, as I say, it doesn't really matter with items like this if you bid $17 on it and "expose" yourself, like 2***c did, because it's not going to sell for $17, so you haven't revealed your hand.)
Here is what happened after the listing on Sunday, leading up to Friday (two days before the auction ended):
1. "Bobbie" put in a maximum bid of $34.56 on the day the auction was listed.
2. Somebody with the Ebay handle 2***c (identity doesn't matter, because he/she only made this one stab, recognized right away they weren't the high bidder, and so went on with their life) found the item the next day and bid $17. This didn't uncover Bobbie's maximum of $34.56, it only raised it $1 over the next highest bid, or $18.
3. So with the item currently sitting at $18, i***s (let's just call them "me") found the item four days in (as I say, it wasn't described using search terms I generally use - for example, I never search "Fern Lodge" or "Fern Lake Lodge" (and still won't start after this experience, despite this experience), because it is a waste of time, nothing ever turns up related to Fern Lodge or Fern Lake Lodge worth bidding on - My guess is, I stumbled across it using the search term "Rocky Mountain", although again, that's not a typical hard-wired search for me, because it finds too much generic stuff, none of which is generally worth bidding on).
4. Because "me" knew how "Bobbie" always bids (so predictable, as routine as the sun coming up each morning, except for the twist at the end), I decided (as I generally do) to play a bit, and entered her typical increment above $12.34 and below $34.56, which is $23.45. I bid this way because, had this been her maximum bid, I would have exposed her bid without being compelled to buy the item, because she had placed this maximum bid prior to me, so she would have been the "high bidder" (even though we are both bidding the same amount). Then, when it became apparent to me that $23.45 wasn't her maximum bid, I went up to her next increment, except, just to screw with her, I bid one cent over, so that I would now be high bidder. You may not think this is such a remarkable thing, but in the future, people will see this as mind-reading: "Me", a completely unrelated individual sitting miles away from "Bobbie", knew exactly how much she was bidding, and bid one cent over that amount. Notice that only 10 cents passed between "Me"s $23.45 bid and "Me"s $34.57 bid, about the time it takes for Ebay to register the bid and give you a chance to bid higher. This is professional stuff, folks.
5. And there things sat until a day later (Bobbie can tolerate about 24 hours of "Me" being in the lead) essentially 48 hours before the auction was scheduled to close, when Bobbie decided to reassert herself and enter a new high maximum.
6. Again, because her bid increments are so predicable, once "Me" saw she had outbid me, less than one hour later "Me" came in and nestled right alongside her. Now she held the current high bid of $45.67, which was her maximum (it had to be, otherwise the current high bid would have gone up $1).
Now, let's recap: 48 hours before the auction is scheduled to close, "Bobbie" is the high bidder, but knows "Me" knows her maximum. This is a precarious position for "Bobbie" if she really wants the item, because only one bid of $1 more than $45.67 from anyone other than "Bobbie" could potentially steal the auction away from "Bobbie". Most of the time, let's say 95% of the time, "Me" just plays with "Bobbie", forcing her to pay her maximum because she has no patience to wait very near the auction end. "Bobbie" has to recognize she is being toyed with, but is powerless to do anything about it. "Me" doesn't really have any interest in 95% of the items he is bidding on, "Me" knows he generally will be outbid by "Bobbie", because she can't tolerate losing. In fact, the sad thing is, "Bobbie" has an addiction, and because she can't change her bidding habits (Ebay doesn't force anyone to bid any particular amount, you can string 3 or 4 random numbers together as long as it is a bid increment above the current high bid), and because she bases value on if and how other people bid, it because a self-propagating loop, where she is forced to bid higher and higher because she confuses other bidder's bids with actual interest in the item, rather than other bidder's interest in seeing how much they can force "Bobbie" to pay.
(to be continued)
Perhaps they'll make a reality show someday focusing on the top Ebay bidders and stream it on Netflix. In the meantime, here is one of the more interesting threeways that unfolded near the end of an auction today.
 |
| Front of postcard |
 |
| Back of postcard |
So let's just go with a circa 1927 real-photo postcard of the interior of Fern Lodge, manufacturer unknown. (To anyone who is skeptical this is actually Fern Lodge, or Fern Lodge in Rocky Mountain National Park, since we are simply relying on some anonymous person's handwritten description (rather than, say, a printed title provided by the manufacturer), there is no question this is the same Fern Lodge in Rocky Mountain National Park.) What is something like that worth? (Oh, while we're at it, the writing on the front is intriguing, but could have been added at any time. The floor is actually a puncheon floor, but maybe "pile floor" was vernacular at the time, like cross-cut wood floor or end-grain wood floor is now - These are just discs of wood embedded end-on.)
I'm going to show you the summary of what it sold for (which is not always the same as what it is actually worth) as far as how bids came in, which will be like posting ancient Sanskrit to those unfamiliar with Ebay, so I'm going to break it down into component parts and give a short play-by-play. The bottom line, if you've already lost interest, is that it was worth $88 to one individual, $87 to another individual, and $86.99 to a third individual. But how this all unfolded over the course of a 7-day listing was fascinating.
Now I'm going to pull out certain portions of this summary, because there was some minor inconsequential bidding action over the course of the week prior to today, which was mostly just interested parties showing they had found the item (sometimes the hardest part of Ebay is actually discovering the listing - Fantastic items routinely go unsold, or sell for much less than what they could sell for, because of bad descriptions) - and were marking their territory. (Ebay gives you two options once you've found an auction - Either bid on it or put it in your "watch list" - For an item like this, which anyone with any brains knew wasn't going to sell for $9.99, it really doesn't matter what legitimate bidders do once they find it - They can bid on it (and thus reveal that they have found it) or put in in their watch list, and thus keep it a secret until near the end of the auction (which most smart bidders do, but sometimes you can be so smart you're stupid, and forget to check back on something in your watch list prior to the end of the auction, and thus miss out), but, as I say, it doesn't really matter with items like this if you bid $17 on it and "expose" yourself, like 2***c did, because it's not going to sell for $17, so you haven't revealed your hand.)
Here is what happened after the listing on Sunday, leading up to Friday (two days before the auction ended):
2. Somebody with the Ebay handle 2***c (identity doesn't matter, because he/she only made this one stab, recognized right away they weren't the high bidder, and so went on with their life) found the item the next day and bid $17. This didn't uncover Bobbie's maximum of $34.56, it only raised it $1 over the next highest bid, or $18.
3. So with the item currently sitting at $18, i***s (let's just call them "me") found the item four days in (as I say, it wasn't described using search terms I generally use - for example, I never search "Fern Lodge" or "Fern Lake Lodge" (and still won't start after this experience, despite this experience), because it is a waste of time, nothing ever turns up related to Fern Lodge or Fern Lake Lodge worth bidding on - My guess is, I stumbled across it using the search term "Rocky Mountain", although again, that's not a typical hard-wired search for me, because it finds too much generic stuff, none of which is generally worth bidding on).
4. Because "me" knew how "Bobbie" always bids (so predictable, as routine as the sun coming up each morning, except for the twist at the end), I decided (as I generally do) to play a bit, and entered her typical increment above $12.34 and below $34.56, which is $23.45. I bid this way because, had this been her maximum bid, I would have exposed her bid without being compelled to buy the item, because she had placed this maximum bid prior to me, so she would have been the "high bidder" (even though we are both bidding the same amount). Then, when it became apparent to me that $23.45 wasn't her maximum bid, I went up to her next increment, except, just to screw with her, I bid one cent over, so that I would now be high bidder. You may not think this is such a remarkable thing, but in the future, people will see this as mind-reading: "Me", a completely unrelated individual sitting miles away from "Bobbie", knew exactly how much she was bidding, and bid one cent over that amount. Notice that only 10 cents passed between "Me"s $23.45 bid and "Me"s $34.57 bid, about the time it takes for Ebay to register the bid and give you a chance to bid higher. This is professional stuff, folks.
5. And there things sat until a day later (Bobbie can tolerate about 24 hours of "Me" being in the lead) essentially 48 hours before the auction was scheduled to close, when Bobbie decided to reassert herself and enter a new high maximum.
6. Again, because her bid increments are so predicable, once "Me" saw she had outbid me, less than one hour later "Me" came in and nestled right alongside her. Now she held the current high bid of $45.67, which was her maximum (it had to be, otherwise the current high bid would have gone up $1).
Now, let's recap: 48 hours before the auction is scheduled to close, "Bobbie" is the high bidder, but knows "Me" knows her maximum. This is a precarious position for "Bobbie" if she really wants the item, because only one bid of $1 more than $45.67 from anyone other than "Bobbie" could potentially steal the auction away from "Bobbie". Most of the time, let's say 95% of the time, "Me" just plays with "Bobbie", forcing her to pay her maximum because she has no patience to wait very near the auction end. "Bobbie" has to recognize she is being toyed with, but is powerless to do anything about it. "Me" doesn't really have any interest in 95% of the items he is bidding on, "Me" knows he generally will be outbid by "Bobbie", because she can't tolerate losing. In fact, the sad thing is, "Bobbie" has an addiction, and because she can't change her bidding habits (Ebay doesn't force anyone to bid any particular amount, you can string 3 or 4 random numbers together as long as it is a bid increment above the current high bid), and because she bases value on if and how other people bid, it because a self-propagating loop, where she is forced to bid higher and higher because she confuses other bidder's bids with actual interest in the item, rather than other bidder's interest in seeing how much they can force "Bobbie" to pay.
(to be continued)
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