Groundhog Day

Today's action in the markets was just a carbon copy of Friday, generally unimpressive steadiness throughout the morning and then a sell-off towards the close.  I don't know if Monday's jump was a fake-out or a genuine belief that the looming trade war is not as bad as portrayed, but it was very much not your typical Monday market action after a bad preceding week, and certainly did not achieve the "washout" I was predicting, or that investors need.  So we are going to test the November 2017 lows tomorrow or later in the week, because Facebook's (and thus tech's) credibility problem is not going away anytime soon (the whistleblower at Cambridge Analytica believes his predecessor was poisoned?).

Here's today's DJI chart, which could be placed over Friday's chart and be reunited as its not-so-long-lost twin.  My buy signal was a dip early on Monday, which we never saw, so now I'm (1) admitting fallibility and (2) still advocating holding off until signals start presenting themselves, tuning back in around 23,300.

Remember the Syrian proverb "The son of a duck is a floater" (or if that one doesn't grab you, try "To a mother, a monkey looks like a gazelle".)  This market is currently either a son of a duck or a floater, but it sure ain't no gazelle, so step back and wait for the dominoes to finish falling before grabbing for the golden ring of Iowa Lottery $20 scratch-offs with your feet on the ground and your head up Casey Kasem's Amer-i-can Top Fo-oh-oh-gur-ty.

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